On August 9, 2025, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a peace deal at the White House, following President Trump’s meeting with the two state leaders. The deal’s objective is to initiate economic ties between the two states after years of conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Nagorno-Karabakh has long been the primary factor fueling hostility between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two neighboring states have been at odds since the 1980s. Although Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountainous region located in Azerbaijan, it is largely populated by ethnic Armenians—hence Armenia claims it.
The roots of this conflict stretch back to the early 20th century, during the decline of the Tsarist Empire, when violent clashes broke out between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Known as the Armenian–Tatar massacres (1905–1906), these clashes resulted in thousands of deaths and the destruction of villages. After the collapse of the Russian Empire, both Armenia and Azerbaijan experienced a brief period of independence, but territorial disputes soon erupted into the Armenian–Azerbaijani War (1918–1920). That conflict ended with both countries being annexed by the Soviet Union.
Tensions re-emerged during the late Soviet era. In 1988, ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh voted to join Armenia. The regional legislature passed a resolution to that effect, disregarding the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh was surrounded by Azerbaijani territory. This hindered diplomatic ties and fueled ethnic conflict.
According to the Global Conflict Tracker, the territorial dispute and the collapse of the Soviet Union triggered the First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988–1994). A ceasefire was signed in 1994, formally remaining in force until September 2020. Still, intermittent clashes occurred, with April 2016 witnessing the most intense fighting since the 1990s. On November 9, 2020, Russian peacekeepers enforced another ceasefire, ending the six-week Second Nagorno-Karabakh War.
The new U.S.-brokered peace agreement marks a significant shift in Central Asian geopolitics. Whereas Russia traditionally acted as a third-party mediator in Armenia–Azerbaijan disputes, Washington’s involvement undermines Moscow’s hegemony in its former sphere of influence. Russia’s foreign policy has been stretched thin due to its war in Ukraine, limiting its capacity to mediate effectively in the South Caucasus. Despite this, Russian officials, such as Alexey Fadeev of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, insisted that Russia remains committed to trilateral agreements with Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The U.S. deal, however, goes further. It includes exclusive American development rights over a strategic transit route through the South Caucasus, dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.” The agreement grants the U.S. 99-year development rights over the Zangezur Corridor—a vital passage connecting Azerbaijan to its exclave, Nakhchivan, through Armenia. This corridor will allow the transit of goods and people while bypassing Russia and Iran.
For Armenia, a landlocked country, the deal offers access to international trade routes, while respecting Armenian sovereignty by keeping the corridor under Armenian law. For Azerbaijan, it strengthens ties with Turkey and boosts regional connectivity. For Washington, it reduces the influence of Russia, Iran, and China in the South Caucasus.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told reporters that Trump signed separate agreements with Armenia and Azerbaijan covering energy, technology, border security, infrastructure, and trade. While details remain limited, U.S. officials say the treaty was the result of extensive negotiations and is intended to pave the way for full normalization between the two countries.
If the agreement holds, it would represent a major foreign policy achievement for the Trump administration and a serious challenge to Moscow’s regional influence.
It is important to note that both Armenia and Azerbaijan had already taken small steps toward normalization before this treaty. Armenia’s withdrawal of its bid to host COP29 in 2024 reflected such efforts. Sources, including The Guardian, reported that both states expressed openness to mediation. Yet, negotiations were long delayed over disputes concerning the Zangezur Corridor and Nagorno-Karabakh.
The U.S. treaty reshapes the regional balance of power. For Azerbaijan, an ally of Pakistan, the agreement provides new opportunities for trilateral cooperation. During the Pakistan–India conflict in May 2025, Azerbaijan openly supported Pakistan. Through this peace agreement and the Trump Route, Pakistan can now strengthen ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan, and potentially persuade Armenia to recognize Pakistan formally.
Ultimately, the treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a reminder that continuous dialogue and diplomacy—though difficult and prolonged—can lead to stability.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance, policies, or official position of The Spine Times.
Ghania Leila Khan
The author is pursuing MS degree in Strategic Studies from NUST, Islamabad.
